2015 Fears and Hopes – 15 State Survey of Who’ll Bring Us to War, Who’ll Bring Us to Prosperity

NextStageologists spent the first week of Jan 2012 talking to voters in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia. We asked them four questions and observed their responses to seven statements.

1. Response Required – Are you a registered voter?
2. Response Required – Will you be voting for a president in the next presidential election?
3. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Newt Gingrich has been President of the United States for about two years.
4. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Jon Huntsman has been President of the United States for about two years.
5. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Barack Obama has been President of the United States for about two years.
6. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Ron Paul has been President of the United States for about two years.
7. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Rick Perry has been President of the United States for about two years.
8. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Mitt Romney has been President of the United States for about two years.
9. Observed Response – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and Rick Santorum has been President of the United States for about two years.
10. Response Required – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and we are at war with another country. The United States is in a major depression and the job market has collapsed. Who is President of the United States?
11. Response Required – It is New Year’s Eve 2015 and we are experiencing unprecedented growth, personal prosperity like we haven’t seen since the Clinton years. Everybody who wants a job has one, there’s Universal Health Care, college education is practically free and we’re exporting more than we’re importing. Who is President of the United States?

Each research team consisted of three individuals; the interviewer, a near observer standing within earshot, able to see the interview and on a cellphone recording their verbal notes on the exchange and a far observer making notes on the interviewee’s social and behavioral responses. No one was “approached” in the common sense. Instead the interviewer (for example) would be reading a paper or newssite on their mobile at a train, bus or subway stop, make some comment about the upcoming elections then engage someone standing close by in a friendly conversation. We favored people with teenage and younger children as it provided a “common ground” for the ensuing conversation/interview.

The results are shown graphically below followed by interview notes.

New Year’s Eve 2015 – Social/Behavioral Responses by Candidate
Click for larger image

New Year’s Eve 2015 – Which President is Helping Us?
Click for larger image

New Year’s Eve 2015 – Which President is Hurting Us?
Click for larger image

There was an almost universal non-conscious negative demonstration (pursed lips, pulling out of or back from from interview space, sighs with shrugs, furrowed brows, nostril flaring, tightening of jaws, subvocalizations, et cetera) when participants considered futures governed by Perry, Romney or Santorum. Paul and Gingrich got almost identical marks in the “He will be good for the country” category while the real winner was Huntsman, the candidate who “nobody’s heard of”. Most people we encountered had heard of him and thought favorably of him while admitting he didn’t have much of a chance in the current big money big spend political environment.

Obama also did quite well in our interviews although most participants stated a doubt that the two parties would be able to get anything done and the brunt of this inactivity would be on Obama’s shoulders.

Gingrich is the candidate least likely to hurt the country should they achieve office. Romney and Santorum may be neck-and-neck in some polls and they’re also neck-and-neck in the “Who’s going to hurt us?” responses.

Gingrich and Obama got close and best scores in the “Who’s going to help us?” responses with Perry performing worst in this category. Huntsman, Paul, Romney and Santorum are in a “statistical dead heat” in this category.

Vote well, folks.