Changes by the hour to www_newt_org_newt-direct (morning and afternoonET, Friday, 4 Mar 11)

During the 2004 and 2008 campaigns we noticed that political messaging could change within minutes due to world events, responses to media queries, just about anything, really.

Here’s an example: we analyzed www.newt.org/newt-direct Friday, 4 Mar 11, around 11amET then got too busy to post the analysis. Later, when we had time to post we decided to do another analysis, just in case and yes, things had changed. Here we share the analysis of the morning and afternoon sites.

Enjoy!

Political Messaging Part 1 – What Newt Gingrich Wants You to Believe at 11amET, Friday, 4 Mar 11

Newt Gingrich's website 11amET, 4 Mar 11 9

Political Messaging Part 1 – What Newt Gingrich Wants You to Believe at 4pmET, Friday, 4 Mar 11

Newt Gingrich's website 4pmET, 4 Mar 11 9

The only recognizable difference here is in the “I Am a Man of the People” metric. It is two points higher at 4pmET than it was at 11amET. Perhaps Newt was warming to his audience?

Political Messaging Part 2 – What the Content Author/Designer Thinks at 11amET, Friday, 4 Mar 11

Newt Gingrich's website 11amET, 4 Mar 11 What did the speech author think?

Political Messaging Part 2 – What the Content Author/Designer Thinks at 4pmET, Friday, 4 Mar 11

Newt Gingrich's website 4pmET, 4 Mar 11 What did the Content Author/Designer think?

Here the change is a bit more obvious. Whatever updates were made to the site between 11am and 4pmET, the person or team making those changes were less than sure of them.

There were no recognizable changes in the gender and age persuasion metrics between 11am and 4pmET.

Gender Persuasion at 11amET, Friday, 4 Mar 11

Newt Gingrich's website 11amET, 4 Mar 11 gender breakdown

Age Persuasion at 11amET, Friday, 4 Mar 11

Newt Gingrich's website 11amET, 4 Mar 11 age breakdown

What is Newt Gingrich Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, Newt Gingrich:

  • Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and are aren’t convinced anybody — including themselves — knows how to make it happen.
  • Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Is convinced they know how to improve the current situation.
    • But does not believe they will be able to act upon it.
  • They are paying close attention/are sensitive to public opinion.
  • They’re paying more attention to their advisors than to the public.
  • May be considered politically towards the Left by their audience.
  • Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

What Newt wanted people to believe didn’t change between 11am and 4pmET. However, the author/site designer/webmaster’s thoughts changed dramatically.

Regarding the real author of this material at 11amET, 4 Mar 11:

  • They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
  • They don’t think any amount of fact-checking will be good.

And at 4pmET, Friday, 11 Mar 11:

  • They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • They were laughing their heads off creating this material and think you should be, too.

Values Generated Are:

  • Political Messaging (no change between 11amET and 4pmET)
    • I Am Leadership Material – 66
    • I Am Electable – 58
    • I Have a Vision – 40
    • I Have a Vision for This Country – 96
    • I Am Listening – 19
    • I Am Listening to You – 37
    • I Can Lead Us to a Better Place – 100
    • I Can Get Us Out of This Problem/Mess/Situation – 65
    • I Am a Man/Woman of The People – 34
  • Speechwriter’s Confidence in Candidate’s Success – -66 at 11amET, -75 at 4pmET
  • Speechwriter’s Determination of How Much BlueSky was in Candidate’s Speech – 56 at 11amET, 92 at 4pmET
  • Gender Persuasion (no change between 11amET and 4pmET)
    • Male – 59%
    • Female – 41%
  • Age Persuasion (no change between 11amET and 4pmET)
    • ? – 24yo – 4%
    • 25 – 34yo – 8%
    • 35 – 44yo – 15%
    • 45 – 54yo – 30%
    • 55 – 59yo – 58%
    • 60 – 64yo – 30%
    • 65 – 74yo – 15%
    • 75yo + – 8%

Race 4 2012 Interview with John Bolton Analyzed

We did something a little different this time out. The material analyzed is from Race 4 2012 Interview with John Bolton. The top of this post is just John Bolton’s statements analyzed. We then used the NextStage Compatibility Gauge to determine if John Bolton was a “favored son” of the interviewer, A.J. Nolte. NextStage’s Compatibility Gauge analyzes two different source materials (blogs, Twitter streams, FaceBook pages, emails, DOCs, URLs, …) and determines how compatible the sources are (think “Brands and fans”, “Brand persona and Consumer Persona”, “management and employee”, “political running mates”, “friends v lovers”, …). Currently NextStage’s Compatibility Gauge is only available to NextStage Members

Enjoy!

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What John Bolton Wants You to Believe

Race 4 2012 A.J. Nolte Interview with John Bolton 9

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What the SpeechWriter Thinks

Race 4 2012 A.J. Nolte Interview with John Bolton What did the speech author think?

Gender Persuasion

Race 4 2012 A.J. Nolte Interview with John Bolton gender breakdown

Age Persuasion

Race 4 2012 A.J. Nolte Interview with John Bolton age breakdown

What is John Bolton Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, John Bolton:

  • Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Is communicating very well to both male and female audiences.
  • Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • They really worked this to remove any BS before publishing.

The original analysis can be found at Race 4 2012 A.J. Nolte Interview with John Bolton Analyzed.

Values Generated Are:

  • Political Messaging
    • I Am Leadership Material – 62.22
    • I Am Electable – 74.34
    • I Have a Vision – 23.93
    • I Have a Vision for This Country – 73.44
    • I Am Listening – 59.97
    • I Am Listening to You – 53.82
    • I Can Lead Us to a Better Place – 100
    • I Can Get Us Out of This Problem/Mess/Situation – 95.96
    • I Am a Man/Woman of The People – 54.39
  • Speechwriter’s Confidence in Candidate’s Success – -81.15
  • Speechwriter’s Determination of How Much BlueSky was in Candidate’s Speech – 2.59
  • Gender Persuasion
    • Male – 52.03%
    • Female – 47.97%
  • Age Persuasion
    • ? – 24yo – 9.13%
    • 25 – 34yo – 17.72%
    • 35 – 44yo – 34.4%
    • 45 – 54yo – 66.79%
    • 55 – 59yo – 34.4%
    • 60 – 64yo – 17.72%
    • 65 – 74yo – 9.13%
    • 75yo + – 4.7%

Before offering the Compatibility Analysis I want to draw attention to a few of John Bolton’s metrics specifically because this was an interview and supposedly not a prepared speech.

  1. The “I’m Listening” and “I’m Listening to You” values. All other candidates analyzed so far shows “I’m Listening to You” having a higher value than “I’m Listening”, essentially a non-conscious statement that the candidate values the input of others, the difference in the heights indicating how much they value the input of others. Here we see that John Bolton, at least during this interview, doesn’t pay much attention to the input of others. This is reminiscent of General Clark during the 2004 Primary season (see Reading Virtual Minds V1: Science and History, Chapter 4.7 “Politics Aren’t HorseRaces Anymore”).
  2. John Bolton definitely knows how to target an audience (the age and gender persuasion spreads are really good for an unprepared speech)
  3. He also knows how to self-monitor his words as he speaks them (the BS value is extremely low for an unprepared speech)

Again, if this truly was an “on-the-spot” interview and not prepared, my hat’s off to him.

A.J. Nolte and John Bolton Compatibility

Race 4 2012 A.J. Nolte Interview with John Bolton compatibility

The actual value demonstrated in the above chart is 58.36 out of a possible 100%.

Compatibility Gauge – This gauge indicates how compatible two things are — in this case, 58.36% — based on what you analyzed. Accuracy increases the more samples you test, so if you don’t like these results, send through a few more things. If the results stay low, maybe you should rethink your involvement. On the other hand, if the results improve, particularly if they improve over time, perhaps this is a match.

A.J. Nolte’s RichPersona is V1, John Bolton’s RichPersona is V13.

  • Cognitive Factors
    • These two sources will understand each other on major discussion points
    • These two sources will probably distrust each other
    • It is possible although not likely that some kind of dominance game might manifest on John Bolton’s part
    • These two sources will definitely have some initial confusions
    • Things will smooth out so long as each party does the same amount of talking
  • Emotive Factors
    • Stay back, there’s probably love in the air
    • There will be some difficulties in planning and they’ll get over it
  • Behavioral Factors
    • Dominance games will break out at some point in time, probably instigated by John Bolton
    • It’s quite likely A.J. Nolte will consider John Bolton assertive to the point of being aggressive
    • There will be class of wills or agendas at some point and probably early in the discussion/negotiation

Newt Gingrich CPAC 2011 Speech Analyzed

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What Newt Gingrich Wants You to Believe

Newt Gingrich's CPAC 2011 Speech 9

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What the SpeechWriter Thinks

Newt Gingrich's CPAC 2011 Speech What did the speech author think?

Gender Persuasion

Newt Gingrich's CPAC 2011 Speech gender breakdown

Age Persuasion

Newt Gingrich's CPAC 2011 Speech age breakdown

What is Newt Gingrich Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, Newt Gingrich:

  • Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Is communicating very well to both male and female audiences.
  • Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
  • They believe the candidate is on the level most of the time.

The original analysis can be found at Newt Gingrich’s CPAC 2011 Speech Analyzed Analyzed.

Values Generated Are:

  • Political Messaging

    • I Am Leadership Material – 57.14
    • I Am Electable – 66.23
    • I Have a Vision – 29.68
    • I Have a Vision for This Country – 71.94
    • I Am Listening – 49.22
    • I Am Listening to You – 56.17
    • I Can Lead Us to a Better Place – 100
    • I Can Get Us Out of This Problem/Mess/Situation – 89.27
    • I Am a Man/Woman of The People – 68.24
  • Speechwriter’s Confidence in Candidate’s Success – -55.7061
  • Speechwriter’s Determination of How Much BlueSky was in Candidate’s Speech – 14.3786
  • Gender Persuasion
    • Male – 48.16%
    • Female – 51.84%
  • Age Persuasion
  • ? – 24yo – 8.93%
  • 25 – 34yo – 17.35%
  • 35 – 44yo – 33.69%
  • 45 – 54yo – 65.42%
  • 55 – 59yo – 33.69%
  • 60 – 64yo – 17.35%
  • 65 – 74yo – 8.93%
  • 75yo + – 4.6%


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