Politics and the Gender Mind 10-12 Oct 2012 (With a Touch of Debate BS and PersonaScoping at the End)


Following up with Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012 (Introducing the NextStage Political Reader), we now supply a gender-based voter breakdown…

A Quick Read of the Charts

  • Say – What people would tell you in conversation. These numbers should be closest to national polls.
  • Think – Which party do people think will do better. This may or may not who people would vote for or who they want to win, only who they think will do better.
  • Hearts – This is the number that most closely responds to the outcome of a secret ballot if held today.
  • End – If people could be magically transported to their real voting venue and knew for a fact that their vote would actually make a difference, how would they vote?

What I’ll share today is probably why day by day evaluations are meaningless from an eventual outcome perspective while incredibly fascinating from a socio-political perspective.

What Changed Their Minds So Rapidly

The image below indicates an incredible shift in male voting patterns in a 24hr period.

Male voting change from 10-11 Oct 2012

Likewise, the following image indicates a similar shift among female voters in the same 24hr period.

Female voting change from 10-11 Oct 2012

What happened in 24hrs to cause that kind of shift? There may have been something from a news standpoint. NextStageologists spent a few hours looking at it and realized it was a shift in “who” was analyzed.

Or more correctly, how many of who was analyzed.

It’s All in the Numbers

The 10 Oct 2012 analysis involved 3,658,758 men (1.21% of all voters) and 931,852 females (0.31% of all voters). The 11 Oct 2012 analysis involved 124,916 men (0.04% of all voters) and 1,114,259 female (0.37% of all voters).

Of perhaps greater interest is that the 10 Oct 2012 results are from sites covering 19-75 year olds while the 11 Oct 2012 results sampled sites catering to 54-75 year olds. Evidently younger men and mature women favor the Democrats, older men and younger women favor the Republicans.

First, the 11 Oct 2012 sample is about 1/4 the size of the 10 Oct 2012 sample. Also, the 10 Oct 2012 sample was 3:1 male:female weighted, the 11 Oct 2012 sample was almost 10:1 female:male weighted.

And After the Biden-Ryan Debate…

Today, 12 Oct 2012, we did another run of the NextStage Political Reader and it seems all bets are off and the Democrats need to do some serious rethinking if they plan to win the election. Analyzing 1,708,074 visitors (0.57% of the voter population) we get the results below.

How Would They Say They’d Vote Right Now?
Men and Women Voting after the Biden-Ryan Debate

Again, the devil’s in the details. The above is primarily for a 12 hour stretch post debate, hence overnight traffic. Evidently Republican males don’t sleep much.

About that BS thing

There was much discussion of how well Romney did in the first Obama-Romney debate. Some of that might have been due to how much BS (BlueSky, a measure of how believable a person was) the audience detected in both candidates. Pretty much all their values were equal with the exception of BlueSky where the Democrats came off as less believable than the Republicans:

How Much BS Was There?
How Much BS Was There in the Debates?

Was Anybody Really Talking to the People?

The last question answered in this post is one of personal curiosity. I’ve always wondered (and several readers have contacted me with similar questions) if politicians talk more to each other or if they really talk to the voters.

Fortunately NextStage’s PersonaScope and SampleMatch tools can answer such questions via “{C,B/e,M}”s. {C,B/e,M}s are a shorthand for how people think, behave and what motivates them. Ever meet someone you just didn’t get along with? Chances are your {C,B/e,M} conflicted with the other person’s. Ever meet someone you hit it off with immediately? Chances are the two of you had highly complimentary {C,B/e,M}s. You can find out more about {C,B/e,M}s at Looking for Love? Now You Can Find All the Right Places! (On the Evolution of Tools)

Obama was communicating using a K13 {C,B/e,M} while Romney, Biden and Ryan all used a V13 {C,B/e,M}. While neither K13 nor V13 is a dominant communication form in the United States, V13 is closer to how the majority of US citizens talk to each other than K13 by 22%. This could be another reason for the Romney Resurgence.

Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012 (Introducing the NextStage Political Reader)


Long ago a blog reader asked if NextStage’s Evolution Technology could determine if people were Democrat or Republican. My response was “Yes, although I’m not sure how it would do it.”

Flash forward to sometime in 2010. I’m reading some research conducted at Cornell, USC and WSU. The research doesn’t immediately solve the “How would ET do it?” question but it did point to a possible solution.

The math and coding race is on!

Flash to Feb 2011. We started a few months’ testing against a variety of people who are open about their political beliefs and whose political beliefs, ideas and agendas are known to NextStage, next we spent a little over a year testing against people of unknown political persuasions who’s psycho-cognitive, -emotive and behavioral cues matched our core sample’s. Finally we performed statistical analyses of what these unknowns read, how they read it and how they responded to what they’d read, matching certain values against nationally polled values.

The NextStage Political ReaderLong and the short of it, we figured out how ET can determine people’s political persuasions, something we’re calling The NextStage Political Reader (NSPR).

We hope to post them as time allows through the rest of the political season.

Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012

The United States may be divided along party lines in the media but how does it fare in the hearts and minds of real voters? People may say the country’s divided but do they really believe it? Do they know what is causing the divide? How to stop it? How to change it? And do they want to?

The following gauges indicate different aspects of voters’ convictions, intentions, their thinking and leanings based on an analysis of all visitors of voting age (1,081,656 total or 0.36% of the voting population) to all US based websites/online properties monitored by NextStage in the past 24 hours. All values on the charts are percentages of visitor populations. (Note that NextStage is not monitoring all US sites/properties nor was the entire US voting population online during that time period.)

As of Tue, 9 Oct 12, the winners are Democrats by 1.14%.

A Quick Read of the Charts

  • Say – What people would tell you in conversation. These numbers should be closest to national polls.
  • Think – Which party do people think will do better. This may or may not be who people would vote for or who they want to win, only who they think will do better.
  • Hearts – This is the number that most closely responds to the outcome of a secret ballot if held today.
  • End – If people could be magically transported to their real voting venue on 11 Nov 2012 and knew for a fact that their vote would actually make a difference, how would they vote?
How Would They Say They’d Vote Right Now?

But What Do They Think?

And What Are Their Hearts Telling Them?

And In the End, Will Hearts or Minds Prevail?


Regarding the first Romney-Obama Presidential Debate: October 3, 2012

This post first appeared on Thursday October 4, 2012, in The Washington Post as an untitled top comment.

In the Wednesday debate, both Romney and Obama did details, but Romney had a better game plan – if he wins the toss, start second so he can see Obama’s approach and delivery as the first speaker, and also so he can have the evening’s last word by which to leave the final impression on viewers.

But aside from debate game plans, the Romney team clearly pushed in the two-party debate planning process for the debates to focus on detail topics – the strategic goal being to cause Obama to focus on details and not have time to bring up his leadership in pulling the country out of a deep hole.  The resulting dog that didn’t bark is that Obama never got into gear on his real value as a leader, versus his day-to-day work as a manager.

Then Romney played the next game plan card by claiming that Obama didn’t include Republican input to Obamacare.  At that point, Obama fell into the trap and failed to point out that the Senate leadership had openly stated their top job was to make Obama a one-term president, and that the House leadership was internally whipsawed by the take-no-prisoners stance from the Tea Party movement.

In the debate, Obama did not point out that the lack of bi-partisanship was due to the Republican decision to offer no willingness to make any negotiable and workable contribution to either the process or the substance.  In effect, the Republicans went on a sit-down strike, and then blamed Obama for not working with them.  And Obama did not use Romney’s artificial complaint about cooperation to make the point that the Republicans were the ones who chose to sit it out while throwing darts at the work in progress.

Obama’s missed opportunity to set the major legislative story straight set the tone for the evening.  From then on, it was detail after detail, where Romney’s business sense excels at building stories from highly artful and colorful numbers.  Obama’s lifetime as a lawyer in ward politics did not give him the instinct to elevate the exchange to the place where he really excels, which is connecting leadership with operational action across the huge mix of players in DC to get things actually to happen.  Wow.

Mitch Daniels’s CPAC 2011 Speech Analyzed

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What Mitch Daniels Wants You to Believe

Mitch Daniels's CPAC 2011 Speech 9

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What the SpeechWriter Thinks

Mitch Daniels's CPAC 2011 Speech What did the speech author think?

Gender Persuasion

Mitch Daniels's CPAC 2011 Speech gender breakdown

Age Persuasion

Mitch Daniels's CPAC 2011 Speech age breakdown

What is Mitch Daniels Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, Mitch Daniels:

  • Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Is communicating very well to both male and female audiences.
  • Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
  • They believe the candidate is on the level most of the time.

The original analysis can be found at Mitch Daniels’s CPAC 2011 Speech Analyzed Analyzed.

Values Generated Are:

  • Political Messaging

    • I Am Leadership Material – 60.7
    • I Am Electable – 71.63
    • I Have a Vision – 26.52
    • I Have a Vision for This Country – 77
    • I Am Listening – 53.2
    • I Am Listening to You – 65.31
    • I Can Lead Us to a Better Place – 100
    • I Can Get Us Out of This Problem/Mess/Situation – 91.91
    • I Am a Man/Woman of The People – 63.67
  • Speechwriter’s Confidence in Candidate’s Success – -71.62
  • Speechwriter’s Determination of How Much BlueSky was in Candidate’s Speech – 16.01
  • Gender Persuasion
    • Male – 44.82%
    • Female – 55.17%
  • Age Persuasion
  • ? – 24yo – 18.26%
  • 25 – 34yo – 35.46%
  • 35 – 44yo – 68.86%
  • 45 – 54yo – 35.46%
  • 55 – 59yo – 18.26%
  • 60 – 64yo – 9.4%
  • 65 – 74yo – 4.84%
  • 75yo + – 2.49%

Rand Paul’s 2 Feb 11 Senate Compromise Speech Analyzed

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What Rand Paul Wants You to Believe

Rand Paul's 110202 Senate Compromise Speech 9

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What the SpeechWriter Thinks

Rand Paul's 110202 Senate Compromise Speech What did the speech author think?

Gender Persuasion

Rand Paul's 110202 Senate Compromise Speech gender breakdown

Age Persuasion

Rand Paul's 110202 Senate Compromise Speech age breakdown

What is Rand Paul Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, Rand Paul:

  • Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Is communicating very well to both male and female audiences.
  • Is going after Boomers.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • They believe the candidate is on the level.

The original analysis can be found at Rand Paul’s 2 Feb 11 Senate Compromise Speech Analyzed.

Values Generated Are:

  • Political Messaging
    • I Am Leadership Material – 63.48
    • I Am Electable – 74.13
    • I Have a Vision – 30.77
    • I Have a Vision for This Country – 72.22
    • I Am Listening – 56.15
    • I Am Listening to You – 61.22
    • I Can Lead Us to a Better Place – 100
    • I Can Get Us Out of This Problem/Mess/Situation – 88.37
    • I Am a Man/Woman of The People – 64.35
  • Speechwriter’s Confidence in Candidate’s Success – -90.625
  • Speechwriter’s Determination of How Much BlueSky was in Candidate’s Speech – 3.528302
  • Gender Persuasion
    • Male – 49.92%
    • Female – 50.08%
  • Age Persuasion
    • ? – 24yo – 1.69%
    • 25 – 34yo – 3.28%
    • 35 – 44yo – 6.36%
    • 45 – 54yo – 12.35%
    • 55 – 59yo – 23.97%
    • 60 – 64yo – 46.52%
    • 65 – 74yo – 23.97%
    • 75yo + – 12.35%