Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012 (Introducing the NextStage Political Reader)


Long ago a blog reader asked if NextStage’s Evolution Technology could determine if people were Democrat or Republican. My response was “Yes, although I’m not sure how it would do it.”

Flash forward to sometime in 2010. I’m reading some research conducted at Cornell, USC and WSU. The research doesn’t immediately solve the “How would ET do it?” question but it did point to a possible solution.

The math and coding race is on!

Flash to Feb 2011. We started a few months’ testing against a variety of people who are open about their political beliefs and whose political beliefs, ideas and agendas are known to NextStage, next we spent a little over a year testing against people of unknown political persuasions who’s psycho-cognitive, -emotive and behavioral cues matched our core sample’s. Finally we performed statistical analyses of what these unknowns read, how they read it and how they responded to what they’d read, matching certain values against nationally polled values.

The NextStage Political ReaderLong and the short of it, we figured out how ET can determine people’s political persuasions, something we’re calling The NextStage Political Reader (NSPR).

We hope to post them as time allows through the rest of the political season.

Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012

The United States may be divided along party lines in the media but how does it fare in the hearts and minds of real voters? People may say the country’s divided but do they really believe it? Do they know what is causing the divide? How to stop it? How to change it? And do they want to?

The following gauges indicate different aspects of voters’ convictions, intentions, their thinking and leanings based on an analysis of all visitors of voting age (1,081,656 total or 0.36% of the voting population) to all US based websites/online properties monitored by NextStage in the past 24 hours. All values on the charts are percentages of visitor populations. (Note that NextStage is not monitoring all US sites/properties nor was the entire US voting population online during that time period.)

As of Tue, 9 Oct 12, the winners are Democrats by 1.14%.

A Quick Read of the Charts

  • Say – What people would tell you in conversation. These numbers should be closest to national polls.
  • Think – Which party do people think will do better. This may or may not be who people would vote for or who they want to win, only who they think will do better.
  • Hearts – This is the number that most closely responds to the outcome of a secret ballot if held today.
  • End – If people could be magically transported to their real voting venue on 11 Nov 2012 and knew for a fact that their vote would actually make a difference, how would they vote?
How Would They Say They’d Vote Right Now?

But What Do They Think?

And What Are Their Hearts Telling Them?

And In the End, Will Hearts or Minds Prevail?


8 thoughts on “Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012 (Introducing the NextStage Political Reader)

  1. Fascinating analysis. How did this picture change as a results of the first debate? (And I wonder if it will change directions after the next debate?)

    1. Everything was mostly blue before the debate, or bluer. We ran a test of the gendering component last night and I was shocked that men were largely democratic while women were split but leaning towards democrats. Susan and a few other female NextStageologists looked at the results and thought there were understandable.
      We’ve already been asked to provide gender, age and state cuts, all three are easy enough to do. I’ll provide updates as time, tide and clients allow.
      We used the NextStage Political Analyzer (NSPA) on the debate and learned that both Obama and Romney were coming off almost equally political (surprise!). Where they did vary was in Confidence and BlueSky (may post these as time allows). Obama had more confidence than Romney but came off as less believable (more BlueSky) than Romney.
      Perhaps that’s what the electorate and commentators are picking up as Romney’s Resurgence?

  2. Joseph,

    The last comment in the text, before the chart explanation, is that the Democrats will win (based on data collected as of this date) by 1.14%. The last chart seems to indicate a Republican victory. Can you explain why this isn’t a discontinuity?

    Thanks,
    Todd

    1. Hello and thanks for the question.
      The “who wins by what margin” value is calculated across all charts as the most likely result at that point in time. In this case, the Think value’s influence (when propagated through time) pushed the Democrats over the top.
      Thanks for reading and commenting,
      Joseph

  3. […] Reader tool and how we’ve been monitoring political thinking over the past few weeks (see Politics and Your Mind 9 Oct 2012 (Introducing the NextStage Political Reader), Politics and the Gender Mind 10-12 Oct 2012 (With a Touch of Debate BS and PersonaScoping at the […]

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