Is it Surprising that Donald Trump is at his best with Rush Limbaugh?

I won’t enter the “He is/isn’t a serious candidate” debate. What’s offered here is an analysis of four speeches. The most interesting element is that Donald Trump definitely shifts according to a perceived audience, with Rush Limbaugh apparently appealing to the broadest swath. Other comments follow the charts.

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What Donald Trump Wants You to Believe

Trump 9 110427

Donald Trump’s belief in his Leadership ability and Electability seem to have declined over time. Perhaps as people have taken him more seriously he’s started to realize there’s a difference between running a company (pretty much an oligarchy even if shareholders have a voice. Some may claim it’s a monarchy in Donald Trump’s case) and running a country (a republic in the case of the USA).

Also note that while he’s retained his Vision, his Vision for the Country has dropped. Again perhaps due to the above, perhaps due to realizing even his bank account can’t buy a way out.

An interesting element is that Listening and Listening to You are much closer now than before. This could be an indication he’s becoming more sensitive to public opinion, which could be indicative of where and when he’ll make his announcement and what it’ll be.

Very interesting (and not seen in previous analyses, me thinks) are the very close numbers between Lead and Get Us Out with the recent decrease in Lead and increase in Get Us Out. This could indicative of the NYC real estate “Turn-Around King” going back to proven strategy and ability, to take bad investments and turn them into profitable properties.

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What Donald Trump’s SpeechWriter Thinks

Trump's SpeechWriter 110427

Trump’s numbers are consistent with the exception, again, of the Limbaugh appearance. NextStage’s CTO and sometime Politics 2012 contributor, Charles, has said “It’s a salesperson’s job to lie and your job to figure out what they’re lying about.” Perhaps this is true of The Donald and is being demonstrated here?

Gender Persuasion

trump's gender appeal 110427

I admit that Trump’s consistent lean towards a female audience — at least in this context — surprised me enough to go back through previous analyses to determine if ET (NextStage’s patented Evolution Technology, ET, that does these analyses) was throwing unrecognized errors.

No such luck, there. It seems Donald Trump is appealing to a consistently more female than male audience, although not strongly enough to make a difference.

Age Persuasion

trump's age appeal 110427

I have no idea if it’s the nature of the outlets (Hannity, CPAC, CNBC Power Lunch v Limbaugh), the audiences of those platforms, etc., that causes this recognizable change at the Limbaugh appearance. Changes like this are sometimes due to increased comfort in one venue over another, the content presented (I’ve mentioned before that ET will assume some material requires greater life experience — hence a shift to higher age groups — to understand completely), etc..

Thoughts, anyone?

What is Donald Trump Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, Donald Trump:

It seems that Donald Trump is at his most confident (regarding Presidential office) with Rush Limbaugh’s audience. It is definitely when he’s paying most attention to audience reaction.

  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – Believes they have a good shot for elected office or staying in their current office (if midterm, etc).
  • 17 Nov 10 CNBC Power Lunch – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Feb 2011 CPAC – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • 14 Apr 11 Hannity – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • 17 Nov 10 CNBC Power Lunch – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Feb 2011 CPAC – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – They are paying close attention/are sensitive to public opinion.
  • Feb 2011 CPAC – Believes they will be elected into or continue serving in office although it won’t be by a popular majority or mandate.
  • 17 Nov 10 CNBC Power Lunch – Is going after Boomers.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

  • Feb 2011 CPAC – Is going after Boomers.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.
  • 14 Apr 11 Hannity – Is going after Boomers.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.

The only “prepared” material analyzed was the CPAC speech (I’m guessing). The others were interviews/dialogues/monologues, so unless there was preparation ahead of time it appears even Donald Trump doesn’t non-consciously think he has too great a chance. Whatever was said during the Hannity show it required some in-the-moment or preparatory scrubbing.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • 17 Nov 10 CNBC Power Lunch – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
  • Feb 2011 CPAC – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
  • 14 Apr 11 Hannity – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
  • 17 Nov 10 CNBC Power Lunch – They think the candidate is on the level.
  • Feb 2011 CPAC – They believe the candidate is on the level.
  • 1 Mar 11 Limbaugh – They believe the candidate is on the level most of the time.
  • 14 Apr 11 Hannity – They really worked this to remove any BS before publishing.

President Obama Through the Ages

Dr. Richard Lent suggested we do a comparison of President Obama’s rhetoric through time and offered the 18 Mar 2008 “A More Perfect Union” Speech as a data point.

Ever willing to please, here is a comparison of the two speeches using the standard NextStage Political Analyzer benchmarks.

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What President Obama Wants You to Believe

Obama 9 through the ages

Probably the most noteworthy changes — the ones to keep an eye on — are to the Vision and Listen measures.

Vision: There’s an indication of less surety, not a lot less, simply measurably less, surety of being able to see what’s going on an respond to it with confidence. Considering that the Libya speech was made on the eve of conflict such a change is understandable.

Listen: President Obama listened and definitely listened to his audience back in March 2008. Now these two values are quite close. This usually indicates someone is paying attention to what’s going on around them and then internalizing it, pondering it, going over it in their mind, definitely discussing it with themselves and perhaps a few (few, not a lot) chosen others before coming to a decision or making a move.

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What the SpeechWriter Thinks

Obama's Speechwriter through the ages

Not much to add here. The numbers tell the story.

Gender Persuasion

Obama's Gender Appeal Through the Ages

Ditto

Age Persuasion

Obama's Age Appeal Through the Ages

There’s a continued focus on younger voters with a group shift and increase with the Libya 2011 speech. This could be due to that age group being the one most affected by the actions following the speech.

What is President Obama Really Communicating? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, President Obama:

And nothing surprising in any of these, me thinks.

  • Mar 2008 – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Mar 2011 – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • Mar 2008 – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Mar 2011 – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Mar 2008 – They are paying close attention/are sensitive to public opinion.
  • Mar 2008 – May be considered politically towards the Left by their audience.
  • Mar 2008 – Is directing their message to a primarily female audience.
  • Mar 2008 – Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
    • But not strongly enough to stand out/win/be recognized as leading the pack.
  • Mar 2011 – Is strongly targeting younger voters.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • Mar 2008 – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • Mar 2011 – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • Mar 2008 – They think the candidate should be fact-checked.
  • Mar 2011 – They don’t think any amount of fact-checking will be good.

Rick Santorum through the Ages

Sometimes it’s interesting to analyze an individual’s material through time to determine when certain decisions were made. Here we analyze Rick Santorum’s “The Press & People of Faith in Politics” speech of Aug 08, his “Capturing the Kennedy Mystique, Correcting the Kennedy Mistake” speech of 14 Sep 10 and his side of the conversation on abortion and race with Al Sharpton and Sean Hannity of 24 Jan 11.

Political Messaging
Part 1 – What Rick Santorum Wants You to Believe

Santorum 9 through the ages

What we see in the above is a definite recent shift; a much stronger belief in electability, a greater discrepancy between having a vision and having a vision for the country — not an ideal situation, that. Normally one can’t have a vision for something without having some kind of over riding central vision to base that specific vision on. — a shift from listening and listening to you to intensified listening but not listening to others as much and a continued decline in a self-recognition as a “man of the people” (perhaps due to a move towards Tea Partydom? I’ll ask others to figure that one out, although the decline in “man of the people”, aka “general populace”, combined with the increase in electability could both be due to Tea Partydom, the former due to a move towards Tea Partydom and the latter due to an increase in the recognition of that movement).

Political Messaging
Part 2 – What the SpeechWriter Thinks

What Santorum's SpeechWriter Thought Through the Ages

While no speechwriter demonstrated much confidence in Santorum’s chances, they all thought he was on the level. The yellow confidence bar above is noteworthy because it’s based on a live discussion, thus the assumption is that Santorum had no prepared speech to work with, hence in live debate and on the topic of abortion and race Rick Santorum himself doesn’t have a lot of confidence in what he’s saying although he does believe he’s being on the level.

Gender Persuasion

Santorum's Gender Appeal Through the Ages

Nothing exciting here. Santorum has done a consistently good job of appealing to both men and women.

Age Persuasion

Rick Santorum's Age Appeal Through the Ages

The yellow high-end age shift is probably due to the complexity of the topics under discussion. People probably had to pay attention to what was being said and how it was being said, hence our technology would interpret the increased cognitive-emotional loads as requiring more maturity to insure reasonable responses. This may or may not also be true of the red high-end age shift, although the very low red values overall indicate the topic (or perhaps the presentation over all) had limited appeal, period.

Where Santorum shined was in his Aug 2008 People of Faith speech. He reached a very good demographic that any politician would be proud to have.

What is Rick Santorum Really Communicating Through the Ages? – Every politician wants the public to believe they are the best for the job and can get things done.

However, no individual can achieve anything in elected office unless they believe certain things about themselves because without those core, personal and identifying beliefs they will not have the intellectual power, the charisma, the social awareness and sensitivity, the negotiation skills or the creativity necessary for success in public office.

In this case, Rick Santorum:

  • The shift in 2011 may indicate he’s putting or thinking of putting a staff together.
    • Aug 2008 – Believes they have a good shot for elected office or staying in their current office (if midterm, etc).
    • Sep 2010 – Believes they have a good shot for elected office or staying in their current office (if midterm, etc).
    • Jan 2011 – Believes their leadership will only be as good as the staff they can bring with them.
  • No changes here.
    • Aug 2008 – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
    • Sep 2010 – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
    • Jan 2011 – Has an idea of where their town/city/county/state/country needs to be but doesn’t know if they’re instrumental in making that vision a reality.
  • No changes here.
    • Aug 2008 – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the
      town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.

    • Sep 2010 – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
    • Jan 2011 – Has a sense of destiny for both themselves and the town/city/county/state/country and believes they are the only individual who can make it happen.
  • Aug 2008 – May be considered politically towards the Right by their audience.
  • Santorum should have run in 2008.
    • Aug 2008 – Close the voting stations, you’ve got a winner.
    • Sep 2010 – Is communicating very well to both male and female audiences.
    • Jan 2011 – Is communicating very well to both male and female audiences.
  • Ditto.
    • Aug 2008 – Is targeting a reasonable demographic.
      • And should be considered a leader in this demographic.
    • Sep 2010 – Is going after Boomers.
    • Jan 2011 – Is going after Boomers.

Regarding the real author of this material:

  • The speechwriters’ opinion seems to have slid over the years.
    • Aug 2008 – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning the race.
    • Sep 2010 – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
    • Jan 2011 – They don’t think this candidate has a real chance of winning anything.
  • However, the speechwriters do believe Santorum is honest.
    • Aug 2008 – They believe the candidate is on the level.
    • Sep 2010 – They believe the candidate is on the level.
    • Jan 2011 – They believe the candidate is on the level.